wOBA Change by Body Region (30 days post-return)
Negative = performance declined after injury. Based on 2020-2025 data.
How injuries affect MLB performance after returning from the IL
This model predicts how a player's stats will change after returning from the injured list, based on the body region injured, time missed, and their pre-injury performance. Trained on 3,180 IL stints from 2020-2024, validated on 2025 holdout data.
Negative = performance declined after injury. Based on 2020-2025 data.